Mariemont City School District families face a stark fiscal picture: the district's fund balance is on track to fall from $11 million to $1.8 million in just three years, according to the district's latest five-year forecast.

The forecast document, presented at the board's Aug. 10 meeting at Mariemont High School, projects annual operating deficits in every year through fiscal year 2030. The shortfalls start at $919,824 in FY27 and accelerate to $4.4 million by FY30, totaling roughly $10.1 million in cumulative red ink over four years.

The core problem: expenditures are growing while revenue stays flat.

The district projects total spending of $31.7 million in FY27, rising 11% to $35.3 million by FY30. Salaries and wages alone climb from $17.2 million to $19.4 million over that span, a 13% increase. Fringe benefits add another $800,000 in growth.

Revenue, meanwhile, barely budges. Real estate taxes, the district's largest funding source, are projected at $22.7 million in FY27 and $22.9 million in FY30. Under Ohio law, the amount a school district collects from property taxes is fixed by the levy voters approved, regardless of rising home values. State foundation aid stays essentially flat at about $3.4 million, and other revenue sources decline from $725,000 in FY27 to $523,000 in FY30 as one-time funding winds down.

The result: a fund balance of $11,025,516 at the end of FY27 erodes to $9.3 million in FY28, $6.2 million in FY29 and just $1,848,802 by June 30, 2030. That 85% decline would leave the district with less than three weeks of operating cash at projected spending levels.

The fiscal pressure is not new. In October 2024, Superintendent Steve Estepp warned that without additional levy revenue, the district would need to eliminate 32 staff positions and cut art, music, STEM and other electives. "It basically would change the way we do business here," Estepp told WCPO at the time, describing what failure of the district's 5.95-mill operating levy would mean.

The forecast does not include narrative assumptions explaining what drives the accelerating deficits in FY29 and FY30, whether contract escalators, loss of one-time revenues or other factors.

Meanwhile, voters in the district's communities face separate ballot questions on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Village of Mariemont has a 3.5-mill, five-year permanent-improvements levy renewal on the ballot, and Terrace Park has a 5.58-mill, five-year current-expenses renewal at $123 per $100,000 of market value.

The next board meeting is Sept. 14 at 7 p.m. in the Mariemont High School Community Forum, with an Oct. 19 meeting following at the same time and place.